Is COVID panic justified?
The Covid-19 has trapped us between two fires with seeming no escape appearing on the horizon.
On one hand, we sit with a government who seemingly has forgotten about the COVID threat but is following another (unknown) agenda.
On the other side, we are bombarded with tons of information, most of it is in words we don’t understand and frequently appears directly contradictory. Furthermore, a cure is just a pipe dream.
After my 50 years in the medical field, I will explain our current situation in non-medical terms on how to understand and give perspective about Covid-19.
Unravelling the COVID pandemic can be compared to building a 1000 piece jig-saw puzzle.
To illustrate and understand the ‘COVID picture’, there are however a few catches:
- Firstly you are not given a picture of the puzzle, only a hint that it is either a chameleon (an innocent creature but can change appearance) in a tree, or it’s a cobra snake ( a deadly viper) lying in a footpath.
- To make the challenge more difficult you receive 1100 pieces of a puzzle; 1000 real and 100 fake pieces. And to add to the confusion, you receive the pieces in small batches.
Quite a challenge!
Research scientists supply information pieces bit by bit with no guide where and which of it fits in the picture, that either being a bit of the sky or the cobra’s eye or a fake piece. Frequently the scientist themselves don’t even know where their small piece fits in when they do their research. This is why initially everything seems confusing or contradictory.
How long will it take to complete the puzzle, 2-3 years at the current rate but a bit faster if the picture (vaccine) is supplied however much faster after 60-70% (herd immunity) has been achieved or the quickest, if the pieces are numbered at the back (medical cure), is given. But then where do you find numbered puzzle pieces!?
This is where we stand now. We have only just started with our puzzle and currently, my ‘chameleon’ might look like your ‘cobra’.
We already (think we) know some risk factors: High blood pressure (ACE enzyme giving more blood clotting), diabetes (low resistance to infections and ? also obese) including cardiac and cancer patients especially combined advance age.
Quo Vadis: With our current understanding in mind, what do we know at this moment?
The picture will only take shape with herd immunity, (60+%) infections or an effective vaccine become available in the distant future.
Lockdown had initial value, but to continue, will practically delay completion of the puzzle picture. If you want lockdown to succeed it must be a 100% absolute lockdown for 2-3 years, being obviously ridiculous and not achievable.
Governor of New York State, confirmed 18th May 2020, that there have been more COVID cases with people who stayed at home and only went out to exercise, compared to the people who were actively involved in their workplace.
The insistence from certain authorities to do fanatical 20+ seconds repeated hand washing and disinfecting and sterilizing all objects, surfaces and places, needs critical evaluation.
Our surroundings are filled with trillions of bacteria and microorganisms, and the majority are benign and much needed to maintain our immune systems to protect us. To sterilize all your household surfaces repeatedly and wash your hand incessantly when alone at home with no risk of viral contamination from outside sources serves little purpose except for killing friendly bacteria. It is well known that your hands contain protective oils to protect you against bacteria. By excessive handwashing, you remove the protective oils, leaving your skin vulnerable to bacterial growth. It is very different when you are directly in a bacterial/viral compromised situation. Then it is imperative to use ALL available sanitation tools available. The word is: ‘common sense’!
The same applies to masks and gloves. Learn how to use it CORRECTLY, otherwise, it adds to the problem with minimal benefit.
How will this affect our workplace?
Well-thought through safety measures must be adhered to at all times. Work from home will escalate combined with remote conferencing.
How will it affect our leisure and travel?
Game park and eco-lodges, as well as camping, will be vitally important due to natural social distancing and structural protections eg. exposure to fresh air and outdoor activities. The same will apply for beach holidays and aquatic sports.
These responsible tourism options will become more popular. And this situation can also present new exciting opportunities for restructuring and planning responsible tourism.
Big hotels with quick turnovers and guest congestion will find it difficult to compete.
Air travel will change. Long-distance flights will be a health challenge and to a lesser degree short-haul flights.
I feel somewhat sorry for the young and single people who want to be part of the ‘dating game’ being able to, or not able to maintain social distancing.
To summarize, social distancing will be with us for a long, long period of time. Improving health standards will be imperative and we will have to learn to live with the virus for many years.
Written by: Dr Johan Van Rensburg